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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."